Fantasy Baseball Preview 2010 – A Six Part Series
For those who played fantasy baseball in 2009, we witnessed an unusually robust crop of young players that hadn’t graced Major League Baseball in years. While one can’t complain about a talent pool being richer than before, fantasy fans will have more worthwhile players who, thanks to their unique individual skill sets, will look better on fantasy owners’ rosters.
The following are six different sets of players, grouped accordingly.
The first group is a collection of unknown talent that was completely off the fantasy radar until last season, and is now comprised of people to at least keep an eye on, if not target immediately.
The second group is a set of players that were on our fantasy radar prior to 2009, performed well last year, and that we should now target as fantasy studs.
Third is a list of established veterans who had unexpectedly amazing seasons, but draw speculation as to whether they can repeat their success from 2009.
The fourth group is a collection of young, talented ballplayers who hit a stumbling block in their road to stardom last season. Some of these players’ levels of production suffered as a result of injury or circumstance, while others simply had the shortcomings in their game exposed by the league.
Fifth is a list of players who had served baseball fantasy nation admirably for the duration of their illustrious careers, but should now be crossed off must-have lists due to declining skills, injury, or retirement. Consider this a fantasy eulogy to the players for years of service to fantasy baseball.
The final collection is a group of young players who you may either not have heard of yet, or have not deemed to be worthy of fantasy consideration…until this season. Store this last group of names into your mental archives, as these mid-to-late round sleepers (or mid-season pickups) could provide the statistical boost that wins you your league.
Group 1 (Where Did You Come From, and Where Have You Been All My Life?)
David Aardsma (RP, Sea) – After former closer JJ Putz left Seattle, Brandon Morrow inherited Putz's job in spring training. When Morrow failed to consistently put out ninth-inning fires after the season started, Aardsma took over and never looked back, accumulating 38 saves in 42 opportunities. One of the biggest nuggets of 2009 Waiver Wire Gold, Aardsma should get at least as many save chances with the improved Seattle pitching staff in front of him and defense behind him.
Elvis Andrus (SS, Rangers) – Good for 30-40 steals, Andrus’ glove will keep him in the lineup, albeit more towards the eight or nine-hole. Regardless, his unique skill set works well within fantasy baseball: speed, job security, and upside at a position thin with talent. Elvis needs to improve his plate discipline, work the count, and pick up a few more walks in order to be more than a mid-to-late-ish round pick.
Andrew Bailey (RP, A’s) – Displayed dynamite poise for a rookie, as the All-Star served as one of the few bright spots for Oakland last year. Although Joey Devine, the A’s projected 2009 preseason closer, is scheduled to come back from Tommy John surgery, Bailey’s job as ninth-inning specialist figures to be safe. His only downside is the team he pitches for, which would be lucky to win 75 games. However, given the lightweight Oakland lineup, it stands to reason that most of their wins will be narrow victories requiring Bailey to retire the last batch of batters.
Gordon Beckham (3B / 2B, White Sox) – The White Sox 1st round pick in 2008 provides a nice all-around presence whose eligibility will change from 3B/SS to 3B/2B. Good at everything but statistically great at nothing, Becks is more of a solid everyday contributor (I label these types of guys “spiritual” or “clubhouse” leaders) in several categories than a one-category stud who will carry your team. That said, he provides clutch at bats (.348 BA w/ RISP & 2 out, .400 w/ bases loaded), his all-out hustle style of play is fun to watch, and he’s just entering his second season! There are certainly worse second basemen / middle infielders you could draft.
Chris Coghlan (OF, Marlins) – The National League Rookie of the Year was a base hit and run scoring machine for the Marlins in the second half. His solid approach at the plate makes him a candidate for continued success in 2010, but for fantasy purposes, he doesn’t bring a lot of power or speed to the table. Assuming he maintains his spot atop the Marlins’ batting order, Coghlan will be a nice source of runs and hits. Unfortunately, he’ll only be outfield eligible, which makes him not much more than an OF4 or OF5.
Scott Feldman (SP, Tex) – One of the most unforeseen 17 game winners in the history of the game, the converted reliever was a direct beneficiary of Ranger team president Nolan Ryan’s philosophy shift, which was to stretch out the Texas starting pitchers’ innings to increase their endurance. If he pitches as well at home as he did on the road (12-4 record in 2009) with the vaunted Texas lineup providing run support, he could put up similar wins totals. However, given that Feldman isn’t a power pitcher, the 27 year-old’s margin for error is smaller than other pitchers who can simply overpower batters with filthy stuff.
Tommy Hanson (SP, Atl) – Hanson’s fan base and 2009 fantasy owners will argue that he got hosed in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. At 6’6”/220, Hanson has the build, the confidence, and the repertoire to remain a fixture in Atlanta’s rotation for years to come. Draft him as a good SP3, or a dynamite SP4. Just don’t be shocked if the young hurler’s innings are limited towards the latter half of the season.
J.A. Happ (SP, Phi) – The postseason-tested 27 year-old, who finished in the top-5 voting for ROY, had a stellar season with a 12-4 record and a 2.93 ERA. A workhorse who is capable of going the distance any given night, Happ benefits from a powerful Phillies lineup that provides gobs of run support and great defense. His ERA shouldn’t be expected to stay under 3.00 this year, but Happ could again provide ample wins and strikeouts.
Garrett Jones (1B/OF, Pirates) – The monster HR/AB numbers Garrett posted in just 82 games of 2009 left Pirate fans “Jonesing” for more. As he is envisioned to serve as one of the cornerstones of the rebuilding Pirates’ future, Jones will play either right field or first base, and will likely be eligible at both positions for fantasy purposes. If he can hit 21 HRs in a half-season, Jones should garner mid-round attention in his first full year in Pittsburgh.
Andrew McCutcheon (OF, Pit) – Blessed with a great power/speed combination, McCutchen was handed the starting centerfield job when Nyjer Morgan was traded to the Nationals. The 22 year-old rewarded the Pirates by hitting 12 homers (eight in August) with 22 steals. Although McCutcheon has a penchant for streaky play, he could serve as a valuable asset nonetheless, especially in head-to-head leagues.
Miguel Montero (C. Ari) – At a position as talent-starved as catcher, Montero provided a huge boost for those prescient enough to add him as a C2 in July. Playing in Arizona limits Montero’s exposure, so you could get Montero several rounds later than Jorge Posada even though they’ll post similar numbers. Montero tore up the minors before he got called up, so his offensive output isn’t completely unforeseen. If Montero is your second catcher this year, your team will be in great shape behind the plate.
Nyjer Morgan (OF, Was) – Morgan can thank the Pirates' front office for the trade to DC that revived his career. He became instant BFFs with those who picked up or owned Morgan in the second half given his bountiful flurry of steals that put many owners in the catbird seat in their respective leagues (well, that’s what happened in mine). The 42 bags he swiped in 2009 illustrate Morgan’s upside, but his puny power is more akin to Juan Pierre than Juan Gonzalez.
Leo Nunez (RP, Fla) – Another example of why one doesn’t need to spend early draft picks on closers, Nunez took over the closer job after Matt Lindstrom (now on Houston) suffered one of his many injuries. Although Florida went ahead and signed Mike ”back-from-the-dead” McDougal, Nunez was assured by Marlins brass that the job is still his to lose. Aside from last year, Nunez lacks closing experience, so draft Leo in the latter rounds as your last closer. But don’t be shocked if he hits a bump or two in the road during 2010, and gives up a few saves to McDougal.
Ben Zobrist (2B, TB) – Although his monster season came out of nowhere, Zobrist has the right players hitting around him to again produce a similar level of production as he did in 2009. Given that he will be the everyday second baseman in 2010 after the Rays traded Akinori Iwamura to Pittsburgh, Zobrist may benefit from having a steady job instead of being a jack-of-all-trades utility player. In either case, Zobrist offers rare run production at second base, but proceed with caution, as he lacks a significant track record. I wouldn’t draft Zobrist before more proven commodities at 2B like Brandon Phillips or Brian Roberts.
Showing posts with label radar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label radar. Show all posts
Monday, February 22, 2010
Fantasy Baseball Preview 2010 (Part 2 of 6)
Group 2: (So THIS Is Why I’ve Heard So Much About This Guy!)
Shin Shoo Choo (OF, Cle) – The multi-faceted Choo figures to be the best position player to come out of South Korea yet. Always able to hit for a good batting average, Choo put together a nice 20/20 campaign that went unnoticed in the Indians’ disastrous 2009 season. If he can hit .300, swipe 20 bags, and post an OPS near .900 again, grab Choo as a solid OF3.
Andre Ethier (OF, LAD) – Serving as Mr. Clutch for the Dodgers in 2009 (.362 BA in late-inning pressure situations with runners on base), Ethier broke out in a big way, as the Dodgers desperately needed production after Manny Ramirez got suspended for 50 games. Although Ethier played okay without Manny’s protection behind him in the batting order, Andre is a much more effective run producer when Manny hits after him. As Manny’s abilities decline, one will have to wait and see if pitchers’ fear factor towards Ramirez remains, and whether Ethier will continue to see as many fastballs. Furthermore, Ethier was a liability against left-handed pitching last season, hitting only .194. With Dodger stadium being a notorious pitcher’s ballpark, I’ll let someone else in my Los Angeles-based fantasy league overpay for Ethier.
Zack Greinke (SP, KC) – The fact that Greinke pitches for the god-awful Royals shouldn’t deter you too much from landing this unique talent who battled back from social anxiety disorder to win the AL Cy Young Award in 2009. The staggering improvement in Greinke’s approach and resulting numbers cannot be ignored, and he should be drafted as the fourth or fifth overall starting pitcher with confidence. In spite of the staff ace’s 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 242 whiffs, Kansas City finished tied for last place in the AL Central in 2009. That said, the Royals are a young team with upside, and they have a great closer in Joakim Soria who can effectively shut the door on Greinke’s stellar outings. Last but not least, Greinke is still only 26, and just entering his prime. Scary.
Aaron Hill (2B, Tor) – Hill busted out beyond all expectations in 2009 after he was sidelined by a concussion in 2008. Formerly known as a doubles hitter, Hill swatted more homers (36) last season than he had in his first four years in the majors combined! While Chase Utley will cost you a first-round pick, you can probably get Hill, who proved that he can put up similar numbers to Utley, in the fourth or fifth round. The market for power-hitting second basemen who get 700 plate appearances in a season is remarkably thin. If you have a bopper like Hill at second base while using a early-ish pick, your team will have a significant statistical advantage over most other second basemen over the course of the season, allowing more overall flexibility for your team.
Adam Lind (OF, Tor) – This highly touted prospect finally broke out with a monster season in 2009, and will serve as a franchise cornerstone while the young talent around Lind continues to develop. As Lind plays at least half of his games as a DH in hitter-friendly Toronto, he figures to be a good candidate to stay healthy due to less wear and tear from diving for and chasing down balls in the outfield.
Carlos Marmol (RP, Cubs) – His development took a couple of years and some grooming, but it looks like Marmol is finally the man for saves on the North Side. Kevin Gregg, who served as Cubs closer for the majority of 2009, left the club to sign a free agent deal with Toronto. If Marmol can cut down on his walks (65 in 74 innings pitched in ’09 - yikes), the 27 year-old could prove to be one of the best value picks at closer this year.
Kendry Morales (1B. LAA) – The Cuban defector who joined the Angels in 2005 had to wait until Mark Teixeira left town so that he could finally take over full-time duties at first base. 34 homers, 108 RBI later, Morales has lived up to the hype, and in spite of said hype, nobody expected Morales to establish himself as such a force in his first year playing as a regular in 2009. Although Kendry no longer has Chone Figgins or Vlad Guerrero hitting in front of him, he could still deliver big-time numbers in the middle of the Angels’ lineup.
Mark Reynolds (3B, Ari) - His incredible 2009 seems impossible to repeat given how high his batting average was for most of the season compared to his prodigious strikeout rate. 223 K’s? Very impressive…if he were a starting pitcher! The 44-homer upside he displayed last year makes him a possible target to be overvalued, as he simply has too many holes in his swing, doesn’t walk enough, and lacks extensive protection in the Arizona lineup. Let Reynolds’ 2009 owner overpay for him in 2010.
Wandy Rodriguez (SP, Hou) – The Wandyman stepped up in 2009 to take over as the best starting pitcher on the Astros. With a revamped Houston bullpen comprised of injury-prone Matt Lindstrom and B-minus closer Brandon Lyon, and a defensively adequate Houston team shagging balls behind Wandy, a second consecutive excellent season may not be in the cards for Rodriguez.
Pablo Sandoval (C, SF) – Panda Bear provided a sparkling .330 BA and signs of life in the San Francisco lineup. His owners licked their lips throughout the season as Sandoval flirted with catcher eligibility, but ultimately fell a couple games short. Sandoval’s excellent batting average and solid-but-not-spectacular power and run production will help your team. But since the Giants’ batting lineup is hardly loaded with thumpers, Sandoval’s ceiling is somewhat limited.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS, Col) – His amazing second half made his owners forget how awful Tulowitzki played in the first couple months of 2009. After modifying his batting stance a bit, he now figures to be a valued fixture in Denver for years to come. One may have trouble using a first or second-round pick on a shortstop not named Hanley, but after his 32-92-101-20-.297 campaign in 2009, you won’t get a chance to Draft Tulo too low again.
Justin Upton – (OF, Ari) – A 2009 breakout season is only the start of a beautiful career run for the younger Upton. A five-tool specimen who is only starting to realize his 30/30 potential at the major league level, Justin could be a first or second round pick as soon as 2011. Barring injury, this may be the last preseason that he could still be viewed as a value pick, so hop on the Upton train in the fourth or fifth round and watch the trade offers come en masse for the All Star as soon as the season starts.
Joey Votto (1B, Cin) – Votto established himself as a legitimate fantasy stud who can hit for ample power, average and provide run production. Although Votto ranked fourth in MLB in OPS (.981) to go along with a .322 BA, he is rarely mentioned in the elite class of first basemen. At this stage in his career, one can compare Votto to a younger Todd Helton, i.e. a great contact hitter with good power that plays in one of the best hitter’s ballparks in the baseball. Don’t be afraid to reach a little for Votto in the fifth or sixth round on draft day – the 26 year-old is very good.
Adam Wainwright (SP, StL) – The 2009 Cy Young runner-up was awesome from April to October. Good offense, solid pitching mechanics, and great coaching should help to ensure another solid season for the 28 year-old. Assuming the Cardinal bullpen provides the same stellar support in 2010, Wainwright should again flirt with 20 wins. One note of caution: Wainwright pitched over 100 innings more than he did in 2008, so don’t be shocked if fatigue causes him to become more hittable after the All-Star break.
Jason Werth (OF, Phi) – Finally given a full-time gig after seven injury-plagued years in the National League, Werth was one of the most pleasant surprises to come out of the NL East in 2009. Situated in the middle of a potent Phillies lineup, Werth has the protection surrounding him, the right home ballpark as well as the all-around skill set to flourish for another year in Philadelphia.
Shin Shoo Choo (OF, Cle) – The multi-faceted Choo figures to be the best position player to come out of South Korea yet. Always able to hit for a good batting average, Choo put together a nice 20/20 campaign that went unnoticed in the Indians’ disastrous 2009 season. If he can hit .300, swipe 20 bags, and post an OPS near .900 again, grab Choo as a solid OF3.
Andre Ethier (OF, LAD) – Serving as Mr. Clutch for the Dodgers in 2009 (.362 BA in late-inning pressure situations with runners on base), Ethier broke out in a big way, as the Dodgers desperately needed production after Manny Ramirez got suspended for 50 games. Although Ethier played okay without Manny’s protection behind him in the batting order, Andre is a much more effective run producer when Manny hits after him. As Manny’s abilities decline, one will have to wait and see if pitchers’ fear factor towards Ramirez remains, and whether Ethier will continue to see as many fastballs. Furthermore, Ethier was a liability against left-handed pitching last season, hitting only .194. With Dodger stadium being a notorious pitcher’s ballpark, I’ll let someone else in my Los Angeles-based fantasy league overpay for Ethier.
Zack Greinke (SP, KC) – The fact that Greinke pitches for the god-awful Royals shouldn’t deter you too much from landing this unique talent who battled back from social anxiety disorder to win the AL Cy Young Award in 2009. The staggering improvement in Greinke’s approach and resulting numbers cannot be ignored, and he should be drafted as the fourth or fifth overall starting pitcher with confidence. In spite of the staff ace’s 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 242 whiffs, Kansas City finished tied for last place in the AL Central in 2009. That said, the Royals are a young team with upside, and they have a great closer in Joakim Soria who can effectively shut the door on Greinke’s stellar outings. Last but not least, Greinke is still only 26, and just entering his prime. Scary.
Aaron Hill (2B, Tor) – Hill busted out beyond all expectations in 2009 after he was sidelined by a concussion in 2008. Formerly known as a doubles hitter, Hill swatted more homers (36) last season than he had in his first four years in the majors combined! While Chase Utley will cost you a first-round pick, you can probably get Hill, who proved that he can put up similar numbers to Utley, in the fourth or fifth round. The market for power-hitting second basemen who get 700 plate appearances in a season is remarkably thin. If you have a bopper like Hill at second base while using a early-ish pick, your team will have a significant statistical advantage over most other second basemen over the course of the season, allowing more overall flexibility for your team.
Adam Lind (OF, Tor) – This highly touted prospect finally broke out with a monster season in 2009, and will serve as a franchise cornerstone while the young talent around Lind continues to develop. As Lind plays at least half of his games as a DH in hitter-friendly Toronto, he figures to be a good candidate to stay healthy due to less wear and tear from diving for and chasing down balls in the outfield.
Carlos Marmol (RP, Cubs) – His development took a couple of years and some grooming, but it looks like Marmol is finally the man for saves on the North Side. Kevin Gregg, who served as Cubs closer for the majority of 2009, left the club to sign a free agent deal with Toronto. If Marmol can cut down on his walks (65 in 74 innings pitched in ’09 - yikes), the 27 year-old could prove to be one of the best value picks at closer this year.
Kendry Morales (1B. LAA) – The Cuban defector who joined the Angels in 2005 had to wait until Mark Teixeira left town so that he could finally take over full-time duties at first base. 34 homers, 108 RBI later, Morales has lived up to the hype, and in spite of said hype, nobody expected Morales to establish himself as such a force in his first year playing as a regular in 2009. Although Kendry no longer has Chone Figgins or Vlad Guerrero hitting in front of him, he could still deliver big-time numbers in the middle of the Angels’ lineup.
Mark Reynolds (3B, Ari) - His incredible 2009 seems impossible to repeat given how high his batting average was for most of the season compared to his prodigious strikeout rate. 223 K’s? Very impressive…if he were a starting pitcher! The 44-homer upside he displayed last year makes him a possible target to be overvalued, as he simply has too many holes in his swing, doesn’t walk enough, and lacks extensive protection in the Arizona lineup. Let Reynolds’ 2009 owner overpay for him in 2010.
Wandy Rodriguez (SP, Hou) – The Wandyman stepped up in 2009 to take over as the best starting pitcher on the Astros. With a revamped Houston bullpen comprised of injury-prone Matt Lindstrom and B-minus closer Brandon Lyon, and a defensively adequate Houston team shagging balls behind Wandy, a second consecutive excellent season may not be in the cards for Rodriguez.
Pablo Sandoval (C, SF) – Panda Bear provided a sparkling .330 BA and signs of life in the San Francisco lineup. His owners licked their lips throughout the season as Sandoval flirted with catcher eligibility, but ultimately fell a couple games short. Sandoval’s excellent batting average and solid-but-not-spectacular power and run production will help your team. But since the Giants’ batting lineup is hardly loaded with thumpers, Sandoval’s ceiling is somewhat limited.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS, Col) – His amazing second half made his owners forget how awful Tulowitzki played in the first couple months of 2009. After modifying his batting stance a bit, he now figures to be a valued fixture in Denver for years to come. One may have trouble using a first or second-round pick on a shortstop not named Hanley, but after his 32-92-101-20-.297 campaign in 2009, you won’t get a chance to Draft Tulo too low again.
Justin Upton – (OF, Ari) – A 2009 breakout season is only the start of a beautiful career run for the younger Upton. A five-tool specimen who is only starting to realize his 30/30 potential at the major league level, Justin could be a first or second round pick as soon as 2011. Barring injury, this may be the last preseason that he could still be viewed as a value pick, so hop on the Upton train in the fourth or fifth round and watch the trade offers come en masse for the All Star as soon as the season starts.
Joey Votto (1B, Cin) – Votto established himself as a legitimate fantasy stud who can hit for ample power, average and provide run production. Although Votto ranked fourth in MLB in OPS (.981) to go along with a .322 BA, he is rarely mentioned in the elite class of first basemen. At this stage in his career, one can compare Votto to a younger Todd Helton, i.e. a great contact hitter with good power that plays in one of the best hitter’s ballparks in the baseball. Don’t be afraid to reach a little for Votto in the fifth or sixth round on draft day – the 26 year-old is very good.
Adam Wainwright (SP, StL) – The 2009 Cy Young runner-up was awesome from April to October. Good offense, solid pitching mechanics, and great coaching should help to ensure another solid season for the 28 year-old. Assuming the Cardinal bullpen provides the same stellar support in 2010, Wainwright should again flirt with 20 wins. One note of caution: Wainwright pitched over 100 innings more than he did in 2008, so don’t be shocked if fatigue causes him to become more hittable after the All-Star break.
Jason Werth (OF, Phi) – Finally given a full-time gig after seven injury-plagued years in the National League, Werth was one of the most pleasant surprises to come out of the NL East in 2009. Situated in the middle of a potent Phillies lineup, Werth has the protection surrounding him, the right home ballpark as well as the all-around skill set to flourish for another year in Philadelphia.
Fantasy Baseball Preview 2010 (Part 3 of 6)
Group 3: (Can He Do It Again?)
Jason Bartlett (SS, TB) – By his fourth year in the league, Bartlett had matured into a defensive-minded shortstop that was good for a bushel of steals per year. In his sixth season, Bartlett shocked the baseball world with 14 homers, 90 runs scored, 30 steals, and a .320 average. If this is Bartlett’s new skill set from this point forward, the 30 year-old should be a good all-around shortstop who can put up Jeter-esque numbers without costing you a Jeter-esque fifth round pick.
Heath Bell (RP, SD) – Bell made a seamless transition to stud closer after Trevor Hoffman left for Milwaukee. Although Bell had Hall of Fame shoes to fill, he stepped up to lead the National League with 42 saves. While he would stand to get even more save opportunities by pitching for a better team, the penny-pinching Padres could already be shopping the 32 year-old, as well as anyone else on the team attracting interest, for anything younger and cheaper…okay, Padre rant aside, Bell is a very reliable closer, but presents risk if he’s traded to a contender and is placed into a setup role.
Russell Branyan (IB, Cle) – The 34 year-old held out a little too long for a multi-year contract, and should have re-signed with the Mariners when they extended him an offer after the 2009 regular season concluded. As it now stands, Branyan joined Cleveland on a paltry one-year deal to back up uber-prospect Matt LaPorta, and possibly DH against righties. If Branyan hadn’t suffered a herniated disc in his back in August, he might have had a crack at 40 homers and gotten the big free agent payday he wanted. As things currently stand, Branyan’s long swing creates a small margin for error, as his career .234 batting average will attest. Don’t get sucked into one good year amid a career of swings and misses.
Marlon Byrd (OF, Cubs) – Although he’s headed for the so-called Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field, are there friendlier confines in MLB than the launching pad he left behind in Arlington, Texas? Byrd should have ample RBI opportunities with Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez hitting in front of him, but last year was the first time he received more than 500 at bats in a season in his eight-year career. Byrd isn’t stellar defensively, and his move to the National League eliminates the possibility of DH duty. If you believe Byrd will flourish in the National League, then take a shot. Personally, I’m staying away if 20 homers in 547 at bats is the 32 year-old’s upside.
Jorge De la Rosa (SP, Col) – Jorge had a nice season pitching for playoff-bound Colorado, and has shown marked improvement in almost every pitching category in each of his last four seasons. Having recently signed another one-year deal with the Rockies, De la Rosa should be plenty motivated to pitch his heart out this season in an attempt to secure a long-term deal at the end of 2010. Finally, Colorado isn’t the hellhole for pitchers it was ten years ago, as some of the Mile High mystique seems to have worn off with the decrease in scoring in recent seasons.
JD Drew (OF, Bos) – Thought to be on the downside of his disappointing career, Drew played as if it were a contract season with one of his highest OPS ever. While 68 RBI from an outfielder who doesn’t get steals is hardly worth salivating over, Drew is streaky enough so that he may get hot and provide your team with a solid OF5 when one of your other outfielders gets hurt. JD sits against most lefties, which helps to keep his batting average and OPS up, and his name off the disabled list.
Ryan Franklin (RP, StL) – Widely believed to be the biggest surprises of the 2009 season, Franklin titillated both fantasy owners as well as his own coaches with 38 saves and a 1.92 ERA. He’ll be counted on for a repeat performance in 2010 on an elite contender in St. Louis. Since he lacks a proven track record, Franklin could fall to the middle rounds, where he would be a bargain.
Frank Francisco (RP, Tex) – For someone who made three trips to the disabled list, Francisco had a pretty good year with 25 saves and a 1.11 WHIP. The 30 year-old righty is a legitimate talent, but has two factors working against him: 2009 proved that Francisco can be injury-prone, he pitches for Texas, a team that, with so much offensive talent, has a tendency to win big (thereby creating fewer save opportunities).
Brian Fuentes (RP, LAA) – Although he had a career-high 48 saves, Fuentes struggled at times with his command, and was shaky towards the end of the season. Furthermore, the Angels signed former Detroit stopper Fernando Rodney, who figures to cut into Fuentes’ save totals. Traditionally, left-handed closers need to be dynamite every night in order to keep their job as ninth-inning specialists, and Fuentes did not have the stuff to get the job done as 2009 wound down. However, Rodney can be just as shaky as Fuentes in spite of his 37-save season a year ago, so take a wait-and-see approach as to how the Angel bullpen situation shakes out towards the end of spring training, and in the meantime, don’t spend more than a late-round flyer on Fuentes if everyone else in your league is scared off by the Angels’ closer situation.
Raul Ibanez (OF, Phi) – The 37 year-old made a favorable impression on Philadelphia fans (not always an easy task), and posted career numbers with the protection of a mighty Phillie lineup he never had in Seattle or Kansas City. While Rauuul! has had a solid track record of production, and lit up the stat sheet in the first half of ‘09, one should expect a little regression in his second season how that National League pitchers have a better handle on how to pitch to Ibanez.
Brandon Inge (3B, Tigers) – Inge started 2009 off gangbusters, but knee problems derailed his production after the All-Star Break. Further more, he’ll no longer be catcher eligible, which pretty much kills his fantasy value unless you need a third baseman who will sap your BA in exchange for some pop. Mixed leaguers would be well-served to keep Inge out of their starting lineup unless injuries create depth issues.
Jason Kubel (OF, Twins) – Kubel, whom I affectionately started calling “Turtle” based on his uncanny resemblance to Jerry Ferrara’s character on Entourage, busted out in a big way in 2009 with improved stats across the board. With the heart of the Twins’ lineup intact for the next several years coupled with the addition of 564-HR legend Jim Thome, the 28 year-old could have even more in store down the road if he can find a way to hit left-handed pitching (.644 OPS) nearly as well as right-handed pitching (1.013).
Derrek Lee (1B. Cubs) – D-Lee provided a rare ray of sunshine for an otherwise overcast Cubs team in 2009. Many skeptics were convinced that Lee’s days of hitting 35 HR and amassing 110+ RBI ended five years ago, but he proved that his surgically-repaired right wrist was fully healed. While I wouldn’t expect the 34 year-old to repeat last season’s numbers, I would gladly take the durable Lee as a middle-round corner infielder once the elite options are gone.
Joel Piniero (SP, StL) - Coming of five consecutive awful seasons, Pineiro finally took renowned Cardinal pitching coach Dave Duncan’s instruction to heart, and revived his career with 15 wins, a 3.49 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP as he headed into free agency. The Angels signed the 31 year-old to a two-year contract worth $16M. While Pineiro was so bad in his previous seasons, his move back to the American League scares me, so I’m staying away, as his lackluster strikeout totals are a detriment in 5x5 leagues.
Jason Bartlett (SS, TB) – By his fourth year in the league, Bartlett had matured into a defensive-minded shortstop that was good for a bushel of steals per year. In his sixth season, Bartlett shocked the baseball world with 14 homers, 90 runs scored, 30 steals, and a .320 average. If this is Bartlett’s new skill set from this point forward, the 30 year-old should be a good all-around shortstop who can put up Jeter-esque numbers without costing you a Jeter-esque fifth round pick.
Heath Bell (RP, SD) – Bell made a seamless transition to stud closer after Trevor Hoffman left for Milwaukee. Although Bell had Hall of Fame shoes to fill, he stepped up to lead the National League with 42 saves. While he would stand to get even more save opportunities by pitching for a better team, the penny-pinching Padres could already be shopping the 32 year-old, as well as anyone else on the team attracting interest, for anything younger and cheaper…okay, Padre rant aside, Bell is a very reliable closer, but presents risk if he’s traded to a contender and is placed into a setup role.
Russell Branyan (IB, Cle) – The 34 year-old held out a little too long for a multi-year contract, and should have re-signed with the Mariners when they extended him an offer after the 2009 regular season concluded. As it now stands, Branyan joined Cleveland on a paltry one-year deal to back up uber-prospect Matt LaPorta, and possibly DH against righties. If Branyan hadn’t suffered a herniated disc in his back in August, he might have had a crack at 40 homers and gotten the big free agent payday he wanted. As things currently stand, Branyan’s long swing creates a small margin for error, as his career .234 batting average will attest. Don’t get sucked into one good year amid a career of swings and misses.
Marlon Byrd (OF, Cubs) – Although he’s headed for the so-called Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field, are there friendlier confines in MLB than the launching pad he left behind in Arlington, Texas? Byrd should have ample RBI opportunities with Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez hitting in front of him, but last year was the first time he received more than 500 at bats in a season in his eight-year career. Byrd isn’t stellar defensively, and his move to the National League eliminates the possibility of DH duty. If you believe Byrd will flourish in the National League, then take a shot. Personally, I’m staying away if 20 homers in 547 at bats is the 32 year-old’s upside.
Jorge De la Rosa (SP, Col) – Jorge had a nice season pitching for playoff-bound Colorado, and has shown marked improvement in almost every pitching category in each of his last four seasons. Having recently signed another one-year deal with the Rockies, De la Rosa should be plenty motivated to pitch his heart out this season in an attempt to secure a long-term deal at the end of 2010. Finally, Colorado isn’t the hellhole for pitchers it was ten years ago, as some of the Mile High mystique seems to have worn off with the decrease in scoring in recent seasons.
JD Drew (OF, Bos) – Thought to be on the downside of his disappointing career, Drew played as if it were a contract season with one of his highest OPS ever. While 68 RBI from an outfielder who doesn’t get steals is hardly worth salivating over, Drew is streaky enough so that he may get hot and provide your team with a solid OF5 when one of your other outfielders gets hurt. JD sits against most lefties, which helps to keep his batting average and OPS up, and his name off the disabled list.
Ryan Franklin (RP, StL) – Widely believed to be the biggest surprises of the 2009 season, Franklin titillated both fantasy owners as well as his own coaches with 38 saves and a 1.92 ERA. He’ll be counted on for a repeat performance in 2010 on an elite contender in St. Louis. Since he lacks a proven track record, Franklin could fall to the middle rounds, where he would be a bargain.
Frank Francisco (RP, Tex) – For someone who made three trips to the disabled list, Francisco had a pretty good year with 25 saves and a 1.11 WHIP. The 30 year-old righty is a legitimate talent, but has two factors working against him: 2009 proved that Francisco can be injury-prone, he pitches for Texas, a team that, with so much offensive talent, has a tendency to win big (thereby creating fewer save opportunities).
Brian Fuentes (RP, LAA) – Although he had a career-high 48 saves, Fuentes struggled at times with his command, and was shaky towards the end of the season. Furthermore, the Angels signed former Detroit stopper Fernando Rodney, who figures to cut into Fuentes’ save totals. Traditionally, left-handed closers need to be dynamite every night in order to keep their job as ninth-inning specialists, and Fuentes did not have the stuff to get the job done as 2009 wound down. However, Rodney can be just as shaky as Fuentes in spite of his 37-save season a year ago, so take a wait-and-see approach as to how the Angel bullpen situation shakes out towards the end of spring training, and in the meantime, don’t spend more than a late-round flyer on Fuentes if everyone else in your league is scared off by the Angels’ closer situation.
Raul Ibanez (OF, Phi) – The 37 year-old made a favorable impression on Philadelphia fans (not always an easy task), and posted career numbers with the protection of a mighty Phillie lineup he never had in Seattle or Kansas City. While Rauuul! has had a solid track record of production, and lit up the stat sheet in the first half of ‘09, one should expect a little regression in his second season how that National League pitchers have a better handle on how to pitch to Ibanez.
Brandon Inge (3B, Tigers) – Inge started 2009 off gangbusters, but knee problems derailed his production after the All-Star Break. Further more, he’ll no longer be catcher eligible, which pretty much kills his fantasy value unless you need a third baseman who will sap your BA in exchange for some pop. Mixed leaguers would be well-served to keep Inge out of their starting lineup unless injuries create depth issues.
Jason Kubel (OF, Twins) – Kubel, whom I affectionately started calling “Turtle” based on his uncanny resemblance to Jerry Ferrara’s character on Entourage, busted out in a big way in 2009 with improved stats across the board. With the heart of the Twins’ lineup intact for the next several years coupled with the addition of 564-HR legend Jim Thome, the 28 year-old could have even more in store down the road if he can find a way to hit left-handed pitching (.644 OPS) nearly as well as right-handed pitching (1.013).
Derrek Lee (1B. Cubs) – D-Lee provided a rare ray of sunshine for an otherwise overcast Cubs team in 2009. Many skeptics were convinced that Lee’s days of hitting 35 HR and amassing 110+ RBI ended five years ago, but he proved that his surgically-repaired right wrist was fully healed. While I wouldn’t expect the 34 year-old to repeat last season’s numbers, I would gladly take the durable Lee as a middle-round corner infielder once the elite options are gone.
Joel Piniero (SP, StL) - Coming of five consecutive awful seasons, Pineiro finally took renowned Cardinal pitching coach Dave Duncan’s instruction to heart, and revived his career with 15 wins, a 3.49 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP as he headed into free agency. The Angels signed the 31 year-old to a two-year contract worth $16M. While Pineiro was so bad in his previous seasons, his move back to the American League scares me, so I’m staying away, as his lackluster strikeout totals are a detriment in 5x5 leagues.
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